ENSEMBLE PREDICTION EXPERIMENTS OF TRACKS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES BY USING MULTIPLE CUMULUS PARAMETERIZATION SCHEMES   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

郝世峰  崔晓鹏  潘劲松 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2008,14(1):41-44

Ensemble prediction experiments of the tracks of eight tropical cyclones occurring between 2004 -2006 over the western Pacific have been performed by using MM5 with five cumulus parameterizations chemes. The results show that the predictions of the tracks of the tropical cyclones are sensitive to the selection of cumulus parameterization schemes. Each scheme has its own advantage and disadvantage, and the predications without cumulus parameterization schemes are not the worst, sometimes even better than the others. And all of the three ensemble methods improve the predictions of the tracks significantly, among which the ensemble method without parameterization schemes, the Grell, Betts-Miller and Kain-Fritsch schemes are the best.  相似文献   

渤海冰-海洋耦合模式Ⅰ.模式和参数研究   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

苏洁  吴辉碇  刘钦政  张蕴斐  白珊 《海洋学报》2005,27(1):19-26

在国内外冰-海洋耦合模式研究基础上,根据渤海水文、气象和冰情特点,以国家海洋环境预报中心的渤海海冰预报模式和POM海洋模式为基础,开发了一个冰-海洋耦合模式.在该耦合模式中,冰和海洋之间的动量和热量交换是双向的,冰厚和冰密集度的变化不仅由冰表面和冰底的热收支决定,还由开阔水的表面热收支决定.侧重阐述了耦合模式的动力和热力学过程的耦合,并对模式中一些热力参数进行了讨论.  相似文献   

生态系统模型中物候的参数化方法研究进展     

顾峰雪 《地理科学进展》2006,25(6):68-75

物候和叶面积指数的季节动态在落叶林中是决定生态系统净生产力的关键因素。尽管物 候对能量和CO2 通量的影响可以简单地通过描述发芽和落叶的时间以及叶面积指数的季节动态 来表示, 但是由于对驱动物候的物理过程缺乏全面正确的理解, 在陆地生态系统模型中物候就成 为最难以参数化的一个过程。目前, 在陆地生态系统模型中描述物候主要有两种不同的方法: 一 种是基于气候变量( 主要是温度或积温) 的经验方法, 即是通过建立物候不同阶段与气候变量的 经验关系来预测关键物候事件发生的时间。另一种方法是基于碳吸收的物候参数化方案, 物候的 任何阶段都和当前的碳平衡相联系。在生态系统模型中, 基于碳吸收的物候参数化方法可以大大 降低物候模拟的经验性, 提高模型的适用性和模拟精度, 比基于气候变量的经验模型更适于模拟 未来气候变化影响。未来随着生理和分子水平上, 对控制物候和LAI 动态过程机理的揭示, 建立 基于过程的物候参数化方案和LAI 动态模拟模型就成为生态系统模型或气候模型的发展方向。  相似文献   

水文模型与陆面模式耦合研究进展   总被引：18，自引：0，他引：18  

雍斌  张万昌  刘传胜 《冰川冻土》2006,28(6):961-970

水文模型与陆面模式耦合是目前全球变化研究中的热点问题,如何实现分布式水文模型与陆面过程模式的双向耦合,并将其有机嵌入大气模式中,是未来大气环流模式(GCM)和区域气候模式(RCM)发展和完善的重要目标之一.在简单介绍陆面过程模式和水文模型发展历程的基础上,对水文模型和陆面过程耦合研究的国内外进展进行了综述,指出了模式耦合中存在的共同问题和未来工作的研究要点.最后,探讨了分布式水文模型与陆面模式耦合在全球变化研究框架中的地位与意义,并展望了陆面水文过程发展的主流趋势和研究方向.  相似文献   

适用于大中尺度污染物输送模式的粒子干沉降参数化方案   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

王喜全 《气候与环境研究》1998,3(2):124-133

用“二层”模式给出一个适用于污染物输送模式的粒子干沉降参数化方案,它比较详细地考虑了近地面层的气象条件,地表特性和气溶胶粒子的物理、化学特性等。从计算值与观测值的比较来看,计算值的离散范围能涵盖所有的观测结果,因而从总体上看此参数化方案是合理的,能够描述粒子总污染物干沉降的主要物理过程及机制。    相似文献   

局部表面参数化的实景三角网模型语义增强方法     

汪利斌  胡翰  朱庆  丁雨淋  陈敏 《测绘学报》2020,49(2):225-234

倾斜摄影测量方法已可自动获取城市规模的实景三角网模型,然而散乱的三角网缺乏精细的几何结构和功能语义信息。为克服上述问题,提出一种局部表面参数化的实景三角网模型语义增强方法:将具有语义信息的独立三维部件与实景三角网模型的无缝融合问题,通过定义三维表面结构树,转换为局部区域的三角网替换操作;在待融合区域附近,将原实景三角网模型和替换的三维语义部件,通过局部参数化表达,UV展开为二维平面三角网;在二维平面上构建约束Delaunay三角网(CDT),实现两模型的无缝拼接,逆映射至三维空间并自动重建语义部件。通过深圳某区域的倾斜影像进行的试验证明,本文方法能有效实现具有开放边界和语义信息的部件模型与表面模型的无缝融合。与商业软件Maya对比,这种基于插入、融合的手段对提高建模效率具有实用价值。  相似文献   

Assessment of Dynamic Downscaling of the Extreme Rainfall over East Asia Using a Regional Climate Model   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

GAO Yanhong  Yongkang XUE  PENG Wen  Hyun-Suk KANG  Duane WALISER 《大气科学进展》2011,28(5):1077-1098

This study investigates the capability of the dynamic downscaling method (DDM) in an East Asian climate study for June 1998 using the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University-National Center for Atmospheric Research non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (MM5).Sensitivity experiments show that MM5 results at upper atmospheric levels cannot match reanalyses data,but the results show consistent improvement in simulating moisture transport at low levels.The downscaling ability for precipitation is regionally dependent.During the monsoon season over the Yangtze River basin and the pre-monsoon season over North China,the DDM cannot match observed precipitation.Over Northwest China and the Tibetan Plateau (TP),where there is high topography,the DDM shows better performance than reanalyses.Simulated monsoon evolution processes over East Asia,however,are much closer to observational data than reanalyses.The convection scheme has a substantial impact on extreme rainfall over the Yangtze River basin and the pre-monsoon over North China,but only a marginal contribution for Northwest China and the TP.Land surface parameterizations affect the locations and pattern of rainfall bands.The 10-day re-initialization in this study shows some improvement in simulated precipitation over some sub-regions but with no obvious improvement in circulation.The setting of the location of lateral boundaries (LLB) westward improves performance of the DDM.Including the entire TP in the western model domain improves the DDM performance in simulating precipitation in most sub-regions.In addition,a seasonal simulation demonstrates that the DDM can also obtain consistent results,as in the June case,even when another two months consist of no strong climate/weather events.  相似文献   

Evaluation of Heavy Rainfall Model Forecasts over the Korean Peninsula Using Different Physical Parameterization Schemes and Horizontal Resolution     

Jeong-Gyun PARK  Dong-Kyou LEE 《大气科学进展》2011,28(6):1233-1245

In this study, the accuracy of a Pennsylvania State University-National Center for Atmospheric Research mesoscale model (PSU/NCAR MM5) for predicting heavy summer precipitation over the Korean Peninsula was investigated. A total of 1800 simulations were performed using this model for 30 heavy rainfall events employing four cumulus parameterization schemes (CPS), two grid-scale resolvable precipitation schemes (GRS), and two planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes in three model resolutions (90 km, 30 km, and 10 km). The heavy rainfall events were mesoscale convective systems developed under the influence of mid-latitude baroclinic systems with low-level moisture transport from the ocean. The predictive accuracy for maximum rainfall was approximately 80% for 10-km resolution and was 60% for 30-km resolution. The predictive accuracy for rainfall position extended to ～150 km from the observed position for both resolutions. Simulated rainfall was most sensitive to CPS, then to PBL schemes, and then to GRS. In general, the Grell (GR) scheme and the Anthes and Kuo (AK) scheme showed a better prediction capability for heavy rainfall than did the Betts-Miller (BM) scheme and the Kain-Fritsch (KF) scheme. The GR scheme also performed well in the 24-h and 12-h precipitation predictions: the parameterized convective rainfall in GR is directly related to synoptic-scale forcing. The models without CPS performed better for rainfall amounts but worse for rainfall position than those with CPS. The MM5 model demonstrated substantial predictive capacity using synoptic-scale initial conditions and lateral boundary data because heavy summer rainfall in Korea occurs in a strong synoptic-scale environment.  相似文献   

区域气候模式对不同的积云参数化方案在青藏高原地区气候模拟中的敏感性研究   总被引：4，自引：3，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

王澄海  余莲 《大气科学》2011,35(6):1132-1144

本文使用MIROC3.2_hires模式输出资料作为RegCM3 (The ICTP Regional Climate Model,V3.0)初边界资料,对RegCM3中常用的3种积云参数化方案Anthes-Kuo (AK)、Grell-Fritsch&Chappell (GFC)和MIT-Emanuel (MIT)方...  相似文献   

Performance of Convective Parameterization Schemes in Asia Using RegCM:Simulations in Three Typical Regions for the Period 1998–2002     

Shaukat ALI  DAN Li  FU Congbin  YANG Yang 《大气科学进展》2015,32(5):715-730

This study discusses the sensitivity of convective parameterization schemes(CPSs) in the Regional Climate Model(version 4.3)(Reg CM4.3) over East/South Asia. The simulations using different CPSs in Reg CM are compared to discover a suitable scheme for this region, as the performance of different schemes is greatly influenced by region and seasonality. Over Southeast China and the Bay of Bengal, the Grell scheme exhibits the lowest RMSEs of summer precipitation compared to observed data. Moreover, the Emanuel over land and Grell over ocean(ELGO) scheme enhances the simulation, in comparison with any single CPS(Grell/Emanuel) over Western Ghats, Sri Lanka, and Southeast India. Over the Huang–Huai–Hai Plain(3H) and Tibetan Plateau(TP) regions of China, the Tiedtke scheme simulates the more reasonable summer precipitation with high correlation coefficient and comparable amplitude. Especially, it reproduces a minimum convective precipitation bias of 8 mm d-1and the lowest RMSEs throughout the year over East/South Asia. Furthermore, for seasonal variation of precipitation, the Tiedtke scheme results are closer to the observed data over the 3H and TP regions. However, none of the CPSs is able to simulate the seasonal variation over North Pakistan(NP). In comparison with previous research, the results of this study support the Grell scheme over South Asia. However, the Tiedtke scheme shows superiority for the 3H, TP and NP regions. The thicker PBL, less surface latent heat flux, the unique ability of deep convection and the entrainment process in the Tiedtke scheme are responsible for reducing the wet bias.  相似文献